Alright, it seems like there’ll be no recession in the near term. To be honest, I’ve been so sure it will come and my guess was somewhen in H1 this year. But it never occurred.

At some point I have to admit that I was wrong. Sure, I could still call one and somewhere in the future we get one. But that doesn’t mean I’m right. However, the system is so fragile that an unexpected event could drag down everything.

But such an even will appear all of a sudden and there’s barely anything you can do to rescue your portfolio. The only thing you could do is driving with half gas, but that’d result in missing a lot of a potential run. And most of the time it’s better to be optimistic than too pessimistic.

How you manage everything is highly individual and comes down to the size of your portfolio…

DeFi Updates

Ignition has started its points campaign where you can earn Sparkls. Ignition has a partnership with Mantle and therefore, you get double (4x) Sparkls on the L2. Paired with the Methamorphosis campaign, this could be very lucrative to farm both at the same time.

Another one… an ETH L2 called Corn, which uses BTC (better said a 1:1 backed BTCN) as gas token.

I’m not sold to it and this is just a marketing thing in my opinion. If they don’t pull great dApps and develop an eco-system, better than others, it’s going nowhere.

Of course, they can create some hype and therefore, we can profit by riding the wave. But nothing new here!

You might want to get a delta neutral position if you have some staked TIA and still want to speculate on airdrops.

These drops could be timed around the big unlocking event to keep people in.

Gaming is getting bigger on Mantle.

Sony is launching their ETH L2 tomorrow on the 28th.

This is a serious thing and Circle is also on board already.

Bubbly, a market for points traded like on Uniswap. TVL and liquidity is still low, but it’s not very known, yet.

Investing

Lots of FUD around Ethereum is on the timeline and people are slowly losing fate in ETH. The Ethereum Foundation is dumping ETH, which they do every year btw, but it’s a very bad timing.

The sentiment is so bad that rumors like, Vitalik Buterin doesn’t like Defi, appear. This is not true! He criticized that a lot of protocols are essentially ponzus, not sustainable and not really decentralized. And he’s right! 90% of projects are garbage.

I’m not touched by all the FUD and bad sentiment and ETH is still my biggest holding. Of course, I also have to think about what would be the implications if my bull thesis is negated, but it’s not the time to act right now.

If you look at the BTC/ETH ratio of the last cycle from 2018-2019, ETH went from 0.08419 down to 0.01744. That’s a drop of almost -80%

Now we stand at 0.04167 and that’s a drop of about -50% from the last top of 0.08407

The last weeks have been very slow and I didn’t do any significant moves. I’m just keeping my LPs in range and switch them if I see better ones.

I think that the big move will come closer to the US election or shortly after. Until then, we might stay in such a boring market. However, I’m thinking of getting a bigger straddle position just in case.

Here’s my Notion Site with all of my current farms up to date 👇

Macro

Powell made it clear that the pivot will come and this will add even more liquidity to the system.

Here’s a thesis for the accelerating bankruptcies and rising unemployment. As I said in a previous letter, I don’t see bankruptcies as a bad thing in the current situation.

Most useless corporations could only survive because of cheap money for years. They didn’t add any value to the system and it’s a good thing they’re finally washed out.

This also means that a lot of people are losing their jobs. Jobs, which have been useless anyway. Of course, this will cloud consumption numbers a little bit at first, but in the long run it’s better.

These jobs are getting money for doing nothing all day long. It’s basically the same thing as throwing helicopter money around like in covid days, which leads to inflation.

The bad part is that those jobs are getting built up again in the coming years.

Yes, our precious assets will go up, but everything will become a lot more difficult. But in this lies a lot of chances if we’re willing to work for it.

If you’re interested in one of the following projects, I appreciate if you’d use my code!

Mantle Methamorphosis (Gets you 10% extra Powder):
https://meth.mantle.xyz/campaigns/methamorphosis/seggsy
Spot On Chain (Analytics Platform):
https://platform.spotonchain.ai/referral?code=0r3wi0eg6n33

Stay Sexy!

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